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Al Kahrabaa vs Mosul — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mosul
Mosul
1/23/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Kahrabaa31%
×Draw28%
Mosul41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.08
Mosul
1.28

Mosul creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.04
Mosul
1.26

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.30
Mosul
1.11

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Mosul+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Mosul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
59%
Al Kahrabaa or Mosul
72%
Draw or Mosul
69%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
12%
Mosul wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
66%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
29%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
10%
Mosul 1+ goals
72%
Mosul 2+ goals
37%
Mosul 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
43%
Mosul (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Mosul away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.04 + Mosul defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mosul attack 1.26 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
31%
level
28%
Mosul scores more
41%

Mosul at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mosul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Kahrabaa vs Mosul

Mosul beat Al Kahrabaa 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 23, 2026.