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Al Kahrabaa vs Diyala — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Diyala
Diyala
I. Kouakou 36' (pen)
W. Ramadhan 90'
I. Harouna 81'
11/22/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al Kahrabaa35%
×Draw29%
Diyala36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.10
Diyala
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.04
Diyala
0.90

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.33
Diyala
1.17

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Diyala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
64%
Al Kahrabaa or Diyala
71%
Draw or Diyala
65%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
14%
Diyala wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
67%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
30%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
10%
Diyala 1+ goals
67%
Diyala 2+ goals
30%
Diyala 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
50%
Diyala (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.04 + Diyala defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Diyala attack 0.90 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
35%
level
29%
Diyala scores more
36%

Diyala at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Diyala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
I. KouakouPenalty
81'
I. Harouna
90'
W. Ramadhan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Kahrabaa vs Diyala

Diyala beat Al Kahrabaa 2-1 in Iraqi League on November 22, 2025.

Goals: I. Kouakou (36' pen), I. Harouna (81'), W. Ramadhan (90').