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Al Kahrabaa vs Al Wihdat — AFC Cup 2018

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Wihdat
Al Wihdat
11/7/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Basra Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Kahrabaa55%
×Draw23%
Al Wihdat22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.82
Al Wihdat
1.05

Al Kahrabaa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
2.00
Al Wihdat
1.43

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
0.67
Al Wihdat
1.64

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Wihdat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
78%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Wihdat
77%
Draw or Al Wihdat
45%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
31%
Al Wihdat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
84%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
54%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
27%
Al Wihdat 1+ goals
65%
Al Wihdat 2+ goals
28%
Al Wihdat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
72%
Al Wihdat (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Al Wihdat away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 2.00 + Al Wihdat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Al Wihdat attack 1.43 + Al Kahrabaa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
55%
level
23%
Al Wihdat scores more
22%

Al Kahrabaa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Kahrabaa vs Al Wihdat

Al Kahrabaa beat Al Wihdat 3-1 in AFC Cup on November 7, 2023.

The match was played at Basra Sport City Stadium in Basra.