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Al Kahrabaa vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
9/22/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Kahrabaa35%
×Draw28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.14
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 41 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.26
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.12

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.26
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.02

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
63%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
72%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
65%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
14%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
68%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
32%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
11%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
70%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
33%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
48%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 43 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.26 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.12 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
35%
level
28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
37%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Kahrabaa and Al Quwa Al Jawiya drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.