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Al Kahrabaa vs Al Kuwait — AFC Cup 2018

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Kuwait
Al Kuwait
9/19/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Basra Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Kahrabaa54%
×Draw26%
Al Kuwait20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.50
Al Kuwait
0.80

Al Kahrabaa creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
2.00
Al Kuwait
0.94

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
0.67
Al Kuwait
1.00

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Kuwait →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
80%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Kuwait
74%
Draw or Al Kuwait
46%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
28%
Al Kuwait wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
78%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
44%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
19%
Al Kuwait 1+ goals
55%
Al Kuwait 2+ goals
19%
Al Kuwait 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
73%
Al Kuwait (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Al Kuwait away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 2.00 + Al Kuwait defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Kuwait attack 0.94 + Al Kahrabaa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
54%
level
26%
Al Kuwait scores more
20%

Al Kahrabaa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Al Kuwait

Al Kahrabaa and Al Kuwait drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on September 19, 2023.

The match was played at Basra Sport City Stadium in Basra.