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Al Jubail vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al Jubail
Al Jubail
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
11/28/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 10Prince Nayef Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Jubail28%
×Draw26%
Al-Faisaly FC46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jubail
1.12
Al-Faisaly FC
1.52

Al-Faisaly FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Jubail
1.06
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al Jubail
1.56
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al Jubail+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jubail ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Jubail or draw
54%
Al Jubail or Al-Faisaly FC
74%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
72%

Winning margin

Al Jubail wins by 2+
11%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Jubail 1+ goals
67%
Al Jubail 2+ goals
31%
Al Jubail 3+ goals
10%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
78%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
45%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Jubail (draw refunded)
38%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jubail at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jubail attack 1.06 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Jubail defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Jubail scores more
28%
level
26%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
46%

Al-Faisaly FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Jubail 0–1 Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Faisaly FC beat Al Jubail 1-0 in Division 1 on November 28, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Nayef Sports City in Qatif.