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Al Jubail vs Al Baten — Division 1 2018

Al Jubail
Al Jubail
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Baten
Al Baten
5/12/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 33Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Jubail36%
×Draw26%
Al Baten37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jubail
1.31
Al Baten
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Al Jubail
1.06
Al Baten
1.11

allows per match

Al Jubail
1.56
Al Baten
1.57

finishing

Al Jubail+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jubail ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Jubail or draw
63%
Al Jubail or Al Baten
74%
Draw or Al Baten
64%

Winning margin

Al Jubail wins by 2+
16%
Al Baten wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Jubail 1+ goals
73%
Al Jubail 2+ goals
38%
Al Jubail 3+ goals
14%
Al Baten 1+ goals
74%
Al Baten 2+ goals
38%
Al Baten 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Jubail (draw refunded)
49%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jubail at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Al Baten away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jubail attack 1.06 + Al Baten defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Baten attack 1.11 + Al Jubail defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Jubail scores more
36%
level
26%
Al Baten scores more
37%

Al Baten at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Jubail 1–1 Al Baten

Al Jubail and Al Baten drew 1-1 in Division 1 on May 12, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz Sports City Stadium in Al Qatif.