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Al Jeel vs Bisha — Division 1 2018

Al Jeel
Al Jeel
FT
0 – 0
Bisha
Bisha
10/11/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Jeel43%
×Draw28%
Bisha29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jeel
1.31
Bisha
1.02

Al Jeel creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Jeel
1.00
Bisha
0.63

allows per match

Al Jeel
1.42
Bisha
1.63

finishing

Al Jeel+0.00on par
Bisha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jeel ↓

Bisha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Jeel or draw
71%
Al Jeel or Bisha
72%
Draw or Bisha
57%

Winning margin

Al Jeel wins by 2+
20%
Bisha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Jeel 1+ goals
73%
Al Jeel 2+ goals
38%
Al Jeel 3+ goals
14%
Bisha 1+ goals
64%
Bisha 2+ goals
27%
Bisha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Jeel (draw refunded)
60%
Bisha (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jeel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 60 matches

Bisha away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jeel attack 1.00 + Bisha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bisha attack 0.63 + Al Jeel defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Jeel scores more
43%
level
28%
Bisha scores more
29%

Al Jeel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Jeel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Jeel 0 – 0 Bisha

Al Jeel and Bisha drew 0-0 in Division 1 on October 11, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Al-Hasa.