Al-Jazira 0–0 Tractor Sazi: Result & Stats

Al-Jazira

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tractor Sazi

3/5/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Mohammad Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Jazira28%

×Draw28%

Tractor Sazi44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-JaziraExpected goals in this matchTractor Sazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.31

Al-Jazira

0.98

Tractor Sazi

1.31

Tractor Sazi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.13

creates per match

1.25

1.38

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Al-Jazira

1.13

Tractor Sazi

1.25

allows per match

Al-Jazira

1.38

Tractor Sazi

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Jazira+0.00on par

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Jazira ↓

Tractor Sazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al-Jazira or draw

56%

Al-Jazira or Tractor Sazi

72%

Draw or Tractor Sazi

72%

Winning margin

Al-Jazira wins by 2+

10%

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Al-Jazira 1+ goals

62%

Al-Jazira 2+ goals

26%

Al-Jazira 3+ goals

8%

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

73%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

38%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Jazira (draw refunded)

39%

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Jazira at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Jazira attack 1.13 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Tractor Sazi attack 1.25 + Al-Jazira defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Jazira scores more

28%

level

28%

Tractor Sazi scores more

44%

Tractor Sazi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

Jordi

Tractor Sazi · G

7.8

Match Events

22'

Mohamed Jamal

36'

Mehdi Kiani

37'

Danial Esmaeilifar

55'

Amir Arsalan Motahari

56'

M. Moslemipour← R. Sharbati

65'

Khalfan Mubarak Al Shamsi← Salim Ali Ibrahim

71'

Salem Aleedi← Yaqoub Yousef

76'

Ahmed Al Attas

76'

M. Ebrahimi← A. Taheran

84'

Khalfan Mubarak

87'

Aref Aghasi

90'

Ali Mabkhout

90'

S. Krpić← E. Pahlevan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-JaziraTractor

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots10

1Corners6

10Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target5

3Off Target4

4Blocked1

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

608Total Passes382

522Accurate Passes289

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls19

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2