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Al Jazira vs Tishreen — Premier League 2019

Al Jazira
Al Jazira
CANC
11:00
Tishreen
Tishreen
2/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Jazira15%
×Draw25%
Tishreen60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jazira
0.65
Tishreen
1.59

Tishreen creates 145% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 80 away

creates per match

Al Jazira
0.44
Tishreen
1.18

allows per match

Al Jazira
2.00
Tishreen
0.86

finishing

Al Jazira+0.00on par
Tishreen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira ↓

Tishreen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Jazira or draw
40%
Al Jazira or Tishreen
75%
Draw or Tishreen
85%

Winning margin

Al Jazira wins by 2+
4%
Tishreen wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Al Jazira 1+ goals
48%
Al Jazira 2+ goals
14%
Al Jazira 3+ goals
3%
Tishreen 1+ goals
80%
Tishreen 2+ goals
47%
Tishreen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira (draw refunded)
20%
Tishreen (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira at home — creates 0.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Tishreen away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira attack 0.44 + Tishreen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.65

Tishreen attack 1.18 + Al Jazira defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Jazira scores more
15%
level
25%
Tishreen scores more
60%

Tishreen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Jazira host Tishreen

February 10, 2023: Al Jazira take on Tishreen in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.