Al Jazira 0–3 Hottin: Result & Stats

Al Jazira

FT

0 – 3

Hottin

7/23/2020

Premier League · Round 25Al-Fayhaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Jazira17%

×Draw26%

Hottin57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al JaziraExpected goals in this matchHottin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.53

Al Jazira

0.69

Hottin

1.53

Hottin creates 122% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 82 away

0.44

creates per match

1.06

2.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Al Jazira

0.44

Hottin

1.06

allows per match

Al Jazira

2.00

Hottin

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jazira+0.00on par

Hottin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira ↓

Hottin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Jazira or draw

43%

Al Jazira or Hottin

74%

Draw or Hottin

83%

Winning margin

Al Jazira wins by 2+

5%

Hottin wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Al Jazira 1+ goals

50%

Al Jazira 2+ goals

15%

Al Jazira 3+ goals

3%

Hottin 1+ goals

78%

Hottin 2+ goals

45%

Hottin 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira (draw refunded)

23%

Hottin (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira at home — creates 0.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Hottin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira attack 0.44 + Hottin defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.69

Hottin attack 1.06 + Al Jazira defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Jazira scores more

17%

level

26%

Hottin scores more

57%

Hottin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hottin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff