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Al Jazira vs Al Shorta — Premier League 2019

Al Jazira
Al Jazira
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
7/3/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Jazira20%
×Draw27%
Al Shorta54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jazira
0.76
Al Shorta
1.46

Al Shorta creates 92% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Jazira
0.44
Al Shorta
0.92

allows per match

Al Jazira
2.00
Al Shorta
1.08

finishing

Al Jazira+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Jazira or draw
46%
Al Jazira or Al Shorta
73%
Draw or Al Shorta
80%

Winning margin

Al Jazira wins by 2+
6%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Al Jazira 1+ goals
53%
Al Jazira 2+ goals
18%
Al Jazira 3+ goals
4%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
77%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
43%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira (draw refunded)
27%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira at home — creates 0.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira attack 0.44 + Al Shorta defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.76

Al Shorta attack 0.92 + Al Jazira defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Jazira scores more
20%
level
27%
Al Shorta scores more
54%

Al Shorta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jazira vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Al Jazira 2-1 in Premier League on July 3, 2020.