Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Jazira vs Al Majd — Premier League 2019

Al Jazira
Al Jazira
CANC
11:00
Al Majd
Al Majd
1/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Jazira30%
×Draw24%
Al Majd46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jazira
1.27
Al Majd
1.65

Al Majd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Al Jazira
0.44
Al Majd
1.30

allows per match

Al Jazira
2.00
Al Majd
2.10

finishing

Al Jazira+0.00on par
Al Majd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira ↓

Al Majd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Jazira or draw
54%
Al Jazira or Al Majd
76%
Draw or Al Majd
70%

Winning margin

Al Jazira wins by 2+
12%
Al Majd wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al Jazira 1+ goals
72%
Al Jazira 2+ goals
36%
Al Jazira 3+ goals
14%
Al Majd 1+ goals
81%
Al Majd 2+ goals
49%
Al Majd 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira (draw refunded)
39%
Al Majd (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira at home — creates 0.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Al Majd away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira attack 0.44 + Al Majd defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Majd attack 1.30 + Al Jazira defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Jazira scores more
30%
level
24%
Al Majd scores more
46%

Al Majd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Majd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Jazira face Al Majd (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Al Jazira hosting Al Majd. Match starts January 27, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.