Al Jazira Al Hamra 3–2 Gulf United: Result & Stats

Al Jazira Al Hamra

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gulf United

1/13/2024

Division 1 · Round 16Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra48%

×Draw23%

Gulf United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Jazira Al HamraExpected goals in this matchGulf United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.34

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.77

Gulf United

1.34

Al Jazira Al Hamra creates 32% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 43 away

1.66

creates per match

0.93

1.76

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.66

Gulf United

0.93

allows per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.76

Gulf United

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Gulf United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira Al Hamra ↓

Gulf United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Jazira Al Hamra or draw

71%

Al Jazira Al Hamra or Gulf United

77%

Draw or Gulf United

52%

Winning margin

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

26%

Gulf United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

83%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

53%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

26%

Gulf United 1+ goals

74%

Gulf United 2+ goals

39%

Gulf United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

62%

Gulf United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira Al Hamra at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Gulf United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.66 + Gulf United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gulf United attack 0.93 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

48%

level

23%

Gulf United scores more

29%

Al Jazira Al Hamra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Jazira Al Hamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff