Al Jazira Al Hamra 4–0 Fursan Hispania

Al Jazira Al Hamra

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fursan Hispania

10/8/2022

Division 1 · Round 5Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra55%

×Draw21%

Fursan Hispania24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Jazira Al HamraExpected goals in this matchFursan Hispania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.29

Al Jazira Al Hamra

2.05

Fursan Hispania

1.29

Al Jazira Al Hamra creates 59% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 16 away

1.66

creates per match

0.81

1.76

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.66

Fursan Hispania

0.81

allows per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.76

Fursan Hispania

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira Al Hamra ↓

Fursan Hispania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Al Jazira Al Hamra or draw

76%

Al Jazira Al Hamra or Fursan Hispania

79%

Draw or Fursan Hispania

45%

Winning margin

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

32%

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

87%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

61%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

33%

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

72%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

37%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

70%

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira Al Hamra at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.66 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.05

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

55%

level

21%

Fursan Hispania scores more

24%

Al Jazira Al Hamra at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Jazira Al Hamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff