Al Jazira Al Hamra vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 74+ matches
Al Jazira Al Hamra41%
Al Thaid35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Jazira Al Hamra creates 10% more chances
Season form · 74 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Jazira Al Hamra ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Jazira Al Hamra at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches
Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.66 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58
Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Al Jazira Al Hamra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Al Jazira Al Hamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al Jazira Al Hamra host Al Thaid on Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 14:15. The match is part of the Division 1 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Al Jazira Al Hamra vs Al Thaid
Al Thaid beat Al Jazira Al Hamra 2-1 in Division 1 on May 24, 2025.
The match was played at Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium in Al Jazirah Al Hamra.