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Al Jazeera vs Al Najma — AFC Cup 2018

Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najma
Al Najma
4/30/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Amman International Stadium (ʿAmmān (Amman))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Jazeera64%
×Draw22%
Al Najma14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jazeera
1.86
Al Najma
0.72

Al Jazeera creates 158% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Jazeera
1.73
Al Najma
1.00

allows per match

Al Jazeera
0.45
Al Najma
2.00

finishing

Al Jazeera+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazeera ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Jazeera or draw
86%
Al Jazeera or Al Najma
78%
Draw or Al Najma
36%

Winning margin

Al Jazeera wins by 2+
38%
Al Najma wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Jazeera 1+ goals
84%
Al Jazeera 2+ goals
55%
Al Jazeera 3+ goals
28%
Al Najma 1+ goals
51%
Al Najma 2+ goals
16%
Al Najma 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Jazeera (draw refunded)
82%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazeera at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazeera attack 1.73 + Al Najma defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Al Najma attack 1.00 + Al Jazeera defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Jazeera scores more
64%
level
22%
Al Najma scores more
14%

Al Jazeera at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Jazeera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jazeera vs Al Najma

Al Jazeera beat Al Najma 3-0 in AFC Cup on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Amman International Stadium (ʿAmmān (Amman)).