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Al Jandal vs Al Taraji — Division 1 2018

Al Jandal
Al Jandal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al Taraji
Al Taraji
Agi 45'
A. Amutu 38'
A. Al Shuwayfie 21' (pen)
12/19/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 14Al-Oruba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Jandal53%
×Draw25%
Al Taraji22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jandal
1.65
Al Taraji
0.97

Al Jandal creates 70% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Jandal
1.06
Al Taraji
0.65

allows per match

Al Jandal
1.29
Al Taraji
2.24

finishing

Al Jandal+0.00on par
Al Taraji+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jandal ↓

Al Taraji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Jandal or draw
78%
Al Jandal or Al Taraji
75%
Draw or Al Taraji
47%

Winning margin

Al Jandal wins by 2+
29%
Al Taraji wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Jandal 1+ goals
81%
Al Jandal 2+ goals
49%
Al Jandal 3+ goals
23%
Al Taraji 1+ goals
62%
Al Taraji 2+ goals
25%
Al Taraji 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Jandal (draw refunded)
71%
Al Taraji (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jandal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Al Taraji away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jandal attack 1.06 + Al Taraji defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.65

Al Taraji attack 0.65 + Al Jandal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Jandal scores more
53%
level
25%
Al Taraji scores more
22%

Al Jandal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Jandal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Al ShuwayfiePenalty
38'
A. Amutu
45'
Agi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jandal vs Al Taraji

Al Jandal beat Al Taraji 2-1 in Division 1 on December 19, 2023.

Goals: A. Al Shuwayfie (21' pen), A. Amutu (38'), Agi (45').

The match was played at Al-Oruba Club Stadium in Al Jawf.