Al Jaish 1–1 Al Sahel: Result & Stats

Al Jaish

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Sahel

11/8/2019

Premier League · Round 5Al Jalaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Jaish66%

×Draw22%

Al Sahel12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al JaishExpected goals in this matchAl Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.61

Al Jaish

1.80

Al Sahel

0.61

Al Jaish creates 195% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.69

creates per match

0.46

0.77

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Al Jaish

1.69

Al Sahel

0.46

allows per match

Al Jaish

0.77

Al Sahel

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jaish+0.00on par

Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jaish ↓

Al Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Jaish or draw

88%

Al Jaish or Al Sahel

78%

Draw or Al Sahel

34%

Winning margin

Al Jaish wins by 2+

39%

Al Sahel wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Al Jaish 1+ goals

83%

Al Jaish 2+ goals

54%

Al Jaish 3+ goals

27%

Al Sahel 1+ goals

46%

Al Sahel 2+ goals

13%

Al Sahel 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al Jaish (draw refunded)

85%

Al Sahel (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jaish at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jaish attack 1.69 + Al Sahel defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.80

Al Sahel attack 0.46 + Al Jaish defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al Jaish scores more

66%

level

22%

Al Sahel scores more

12%

Al Jaish at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff