Al Jaish 2–0 Al Karama: Result & Stats

Al Jaish

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Karama

10/25/2019

Premier League · Round 2Al Jalaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Jaish45%

×Draw29%

Al Karama27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al JaishExpected goals in this matchAl Karama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.91

Al Jaish

1.27

Al Karama

0.91

Al Jaish creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 81 away

1.69

creates per match

1.05

0.77

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Al Jaish

1.69

Al Karama

1.05

allows per match

Al Jaish

0.77

Al Karama

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jaish+0.00on par

Al Karama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jaish ↓

Al Karama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Jaish or draw

73%

Al Jaish or Al Karama

71%

Draw or Al Karama

55%

Winning margin

Al Jaish wins by 2+

20%

Al Karama wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Jaish 1+ goals

72%

Al Jaish 2+ goals

36%

Al Jaish 3+ goals

14%

Al Karama 1+ goals

60%

Al Karama 2+ goals

23%

Al Karama 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Jaish (draw refunded)

63%

Al Karama (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jaish at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Al Karama away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jaish attack 1.69 + Al Karama defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Karama attack 1.05 + Al Jaish defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Jaish scores more

45%

level

29%

Al Karama scores more

27%

Al Jaish at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff