Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Jaish vs Al Ahed — AFC Cup 2018

Al Jaish
Al Jaish
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
3/12/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Madinat 'Isa Stadium (al-Manāma (Manama))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Jaish38%
×Draw31%
Al Ahed31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jaish
1.06
Al Ahed
0.94

Al Jaish creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Jaish
1.25
Al Ahed
0.88

allows per match

Al Jaish
1.00
Al Ahed
0.88

finishing

Al Jaish+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jaish ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Jaish or draw
69%
Al Jaish or Al Ahed
69%
Draw or Al Ahed
62%

Winning margin

Al Jaish wins by 2+
15%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Jaish 1+ goals
65%
Al Jaish 2+ goals
29%
Al Jaish 3+ goals
9%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
61%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
24%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Jaish (draw refunded)
55%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jaish at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jaish attack 1.25 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al Ahed attack 0.88 + Al Jaish defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Jaish scores more
38%
level
31%
Al Ahed scores more
31%

Al Jaish at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jaish vs Al Ahed

Al Ahed beat Al Jaish 4-1 in AFC Cup on March 12, 2018.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium (al-Manāma (Manama)).