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Al Jahra vs Khaitan — Premier League 2019

Al Jahra
Al Jahra
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Khaitan
Khaitan
12/22/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Al-Sadaqua Walsalam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Jahra40%
×Draw26%
Khaitan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jahra
1.41
Khaitan
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 38 away

creates per match

Al Jahra
1.10
Khaitan
0.97

allows per match

Al Jahra
1.60
Khaitan
1.71

finishing

Al Jahra+0.00on par
Khaitan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jahra ↓

Khaitan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Jahra or draw
66%
Al Jahra or Khaitan
74%
Draw or Khaitan
60%

Winning margin

Al Jahra wins by 2+
19%
Khaitan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Jahra 1+ goals
76%
Al Jahra 2+ goals
41%
Al Jahra 3+ goals
17%
Khaitan 1+ goals
72%
Khaitan 2+ goals
37%
Khaitan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Jahra (draw refunded)
54%
Khaitan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jahra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

Khaitan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jahra attack 1.10 + Khaitan defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Khaitan attack 0.97 + Al Jahra defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Jahra scores more
40%
level
26%
Khaitan scores more
34%

Al Jahra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Jahra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jahra vs Khaitan

Khaitan beat Al Jahra 3-2 in Premier League on December 22, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Sadaqua Walsalam Stadium in Kuwait City.