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Al Jahra vs Kazma — Premier League 2019

Al Jahra
Al Jahra
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Kazma
Kazma
3/31/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 1Khaitan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Jahra32%
×Draw26%
Kazma42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jahra
1.24
Kazma
1.47

Kazma creates 19% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 83 away

creates per match

Al Jahra
1.10
Kazma
1.34

allows per match

Al Jahra
1.60
Kazma
1.37

finishing

Al Jahra+0.00on par
Kazma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jahra ↓

Kazma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Jahra or draw
58%
Al Jahra or Kazma
74%
Draw or Kazma
68%

Winning margin

Al Jahra wins by 2+
13%
Kazma wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Jahra 1+ goals
71%
Al Jahra 2+ goals
35%
Al Jahra 3+ goals
13%
Kazma 1+ goals
77%
Kazma 2+ goals
43%
Kazma 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Jahra (draw refunded)
43%
Kazma (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jahra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

Kazma away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jahra attack 1.10 + Kazma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kazma attack 1.34 + Al Jahra defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Jahra scores more
32%
level
26%
Kazma scores more
42%

Kazma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kazma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Jahra 2 – 4 Kazma

Kazma beat Al Jahra 4-2 in Premier League on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Khaitan Stadium in Kuwait City.