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Al Jahra vs Al Kuwait — Crown Prince Cup 2020

Al Jahra
Al Jahra
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Al Kuwait
Al Kuwaitadvanced
4/23/2025Crown Prince CupCrown Prince Cup · Quarter-finalsJaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Jahra16%
×Draw17%
Al Kuwait67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jahra
1.27
Al Kuwait
2.73

Al Kuwait creates 115% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Jahra
1.20
Al Kuwait
2.67

allows per match

Al Jahra
2.80
Al Kuwait
1.33

finishing

Al Jahra+0.00on par
Al Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jahra ↓

Al Kuwait →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Al Jahra or draw
33%
Al Jahra or Al Kuwait
83%
Draw or Al Kuwait
84%

Winning margin

Al Jahra wins by 2+
6%
Al Kuwait wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Al Jahra 1+ goals
72%
Al Jahra 2+ goals
36%
Al Jahra 3+ goals
14%
Al Kuwait 1+ goals
93%
Al Kuwait 2+ goals
75%
Al Kuwait 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Al Jahra (draw refunded)
19%
Al Kuwait (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jahra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Al Kuwait away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jahra attack 1.20 + Al Kuwait defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Kuwait attack 2.67 + Al Jahra defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al Jahra scores more
16%
level
17%
Al Kuwait scores more
67%

Al Kuwait at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jahra vs Al Kuwait

Al Kuwait beat Al Jahra 6-1 in Crown Prince Cup on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium in Ardhiyah.