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Al Jahra vs Al Fahaheel — Premier League 2019

Al Jahra
Al Jahra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Fahaheel
Al Fahaheel
3/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Al Shabab Mubarak Alaiar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Jahra37%
×Draw25%
Al Fahaheel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jahra
1.43
Al Fahaheel
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 75 away

creates per match

Al Jahra
1.10
Al Fahaheel
1.28

allows per match

Al Jahra
1.60
Al Fahaheel
1.76

finishing

Al Jahra+0.00on par
Al Fahaheel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jahra ↓

Al Fahaheel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Jahra or draw
62%
Al Jahra or Al Fahaheel
75%
Draw or Al Fahaheel
63%

Winning margin

Al Jahra wins by 2+
17%
Al Fahaheel wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Jahra 1+ goals
76%
Al Jahra 2+ goals
42%
Al Jahra 3+ goals
17%
Al Fahaheel 1+ goals
76%
Al Fahaheel 2+ goals
42%
Al Fahaheel 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Jahra (draw refunded)
50%
Al Fahaheel (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jahra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

Al Fahaheel away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.76 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jahra attack 1.10 + Al Fahaheel defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Fahaheel attack 1.28 + Al Jahra defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Jahra scores more
37%
level
25%
Al Fahaheel scores more
38%

Al Fahaheel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Fahaheel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Jahra 2–2 Al Fahaheel

Al Jahra and Al Fahaheel drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at Al Shabab Mubarak Alaiar Stadium in Al Jahra.