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Al Jabalain vs Al Zulfi — Division 1 2018

Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Zulfi
Al Zulfi
F. Al Juhani 39'
K. Al-Qahtani 87'
9/30/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 5Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Jabalain46%
×Draw26%
Al Zulfi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jabalain
1.49
Al Zulfi
1.09

Al Jabalain creates 37% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Jabalain
1.57
Al Zulfi
1.21

allows per match

Al Jabalain
0.98
Al Zulfi
1.41

finishing

Al Jabalain+0.00on par
Al Zulfi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jabalain ↓

Al Zulfi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Jabalain or draw
72%
Al Jabalain or Al Zulfi
74%
Draw or Al Zulfi
54%

Winning margin

Al Jabalain wins by 2+
23%
Al Zulfi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Jabalain 1+ goals
77%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
44%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
19%
Al Zulfi 1+ goals
66%
Al Zulfi 2+ goals
30%
Al Zulfi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
63%
Al Zulfi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jabalain at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

Al Zulfi away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jabalain attack 1.57 + Al Zulfi defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Al Zulfi attack 1.21 + Al Jabalain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Jabalain scores more
46%
level
26%
Al Zulfi scores more
28%

Al Jabalain at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
F. Al Juhani
87'
K. Al-Qahtani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jabalain vs Al Zulfi

Al Jabalain and Al Zulfi drew 1-1 in Division 1 on September 30, 2024.

Goals: F. Al Juhani (39'), K. Al-Qahtani (87').

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.