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Al Jabalain vs Al Najma — Division 1 2018

Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najma
Al Najma
12/9/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 13Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Jabalain42%
×Draw25%
Al Najma33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jabalain
1.52
Al Najma
1.32

Al Jabalain creates 15% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Jabalain
1.55
Al Najma
1.65

allows per match

Al Jabalain
0.99
Al Najma
1.50

finishing

Al Jabalain+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jabalain ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Jabalain or draw
67%
Al Jabalain or Al Najma
75%
Draw or Al Najma
58%

Winning margin

Al Jabalain wins by 2+
21%
Al Najma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Jabalain 1+ goals
78%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
45%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
20%
Al Najma 1+ goals
73%
Al Najma 2+ goals
38%
Al Najma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
56%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jabalain at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.99 · 128 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jabalain attack 1.55 + Al Najma defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Najma attack 1.65 + Al Jabalain defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Jabalain scores more
42%
level
25%
Al Najma scores more
33%

Al Jabalain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jabalain vs Al Najma

Al Jabalain beat Al Najma 1-0 in Division 1 on December 9, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.