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Al Jabalain vs Al Jubail — Division 1 2018

Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jubail
Al Jubail
Unknown 45+3'
4/14/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 29Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Jabalain58%
×Draw24%
Al Jubail19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jabalain
1.73
Al Jubail
0.87

Al Jabalain creates 99% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Jabalain
1.57
Al Jubail
0.76

allows per match

Al Jabalain
0.98
Al Jubail
1.88

finishing

Al Jabalain+0.00on par
Al Jubail+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jabalain ↓

Al Jubail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Jabalain or draw
81%
Al Jabalain or Al Jubail
76%
Draw or Al Jubail
42%

Winning margin

Al Jabalain wins by 2+
32%
Al Jubail wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Jabalain 1+ goals
82%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
52%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
25%
Al Jubail 1+ goals
58%
Al Jubail 2+ goals
22%
Al Jubail 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
75%
Al Jubail (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jabalain at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

Al Jubail away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jabalain attack 1.57 + Al Jubail defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Al Jubail attack 0.76 + Al Jabalain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Jabalain scores more
58%
level
24%
Al Jubail scores more
19%

Al Jabalain at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Jabalain 0 – 0 Al Jubail

Al Jabalain and Al Jubail drew 0-0 in Division 1 on April 14, 2025.

Goals: ? (45+3').

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.