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Al Jabalain vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
9/1/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 3Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Al Jabalain46%
×Draw27%
Al Bukayriyah27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jabalain
1.41
Al Bukayriyah
1.01

Al Jabalain creates 40% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Jabalain
1.55
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Jabalain
0.99
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Jabalain+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jabalain ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Jabalain or draw
73%
Al Jabalain or Al Bukayriyah
73%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
54%

Winning margin

Al Jabalain wins by 2+
22%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Jabalain 1+ goals
76%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
41%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
17%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
64%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
27%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
63%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jabalain at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.99 · 128 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jabalain attack 1.55 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Jabalain defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Jabalain scores more
46%
level
27%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
27%

Al Jabalain at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Jabalain 2–1 Al Bukayriyah

Al Jabalain beat Al Bukayriyah 2-1 in Division 1 on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.