Al Ittihad 2–1 Wadi Degla: Result & Stats

Al Ittihad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wadi Degla

E. Okwi 90+1'

Fawzi El Henawi 53'

Mohamed Helal 23' (pen)

2/25/2021

Premier League · Round 13Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Al Ittihad39%

×Draw32%

Wadi Degla29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al IttihadExpected goals in this matchWadi Degla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.86

Al Ittihad

1.04

Wadi Degla

0.86

Al Ittihad creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.11

creates per match

0.94

0.78

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Al Ittihad

1.11

Wadi Degla

0.94

allows per match

Al Ittihad

0.78

Wadi Degla

0.97

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.69scores more

Wadi Degla-0.06on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Wadi Degla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw

71%

Al Ittihad or Wadi Degla

68%

Draw or Wadi Degla

61%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+

15%

Wadi Degla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals

65%

Al Ittihad 2+ goals

28%

Al Ittihad 3+ goals

9%

Wadi Degla 1+ goals

58%

Wadi Degla 2+ goals

21%

Wadi Degla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)

57%

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 5 matches

Wadi Degla away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.11 + Wadi Degla defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wadi Degla attack 0.94 + Al Ittihad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Ittihad scores more

39%

level

32%

Wadi Degla scores more

29%

Al Ittihad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Ibrahim Ragab

23'

Mohamed HelalPenalty

36'

42'

45'

45'

53'

Fawzi El Henawi↳ Karim El Deeb

55'

58'

60'

62'

62'

Hossam Arafat← R. Antwi

62'

Salah Amin← D. Calderón

64'

Ahmed Rashed← Karim El Deeb

69'

Ibrahim Ayesh← Mohamed Reda

79'

Marwan Attia← Ahmed Nabil Manga

79'

Ahmed Heggy← Fawzi El Henawi

86'

Karim Mohamed← Mohamed Helal

90+1'

E. Okwi

Al4-2-3-1

Wadi4-2-3-1

29

▼

Antwi

22

Jorginho

18

▼

Calderón

20

Ragab

8

Said

77

▼

Reda

10

⚽

▼

7

4

11

1

99

17

A

▼

Deeb

8

▼

Manga

31

Lowe

13

Salem

24

⚽

▼

Henawi

10

Ghandour

12

▼

34

77

20

Manager: Hossam Hassan

55'▲E. Okwi←▼R. Williams

64'▲Ahmed Rashed←▼Karim El Deeb

79'▲Marwan Attia←▼Ahmed Nabil Manga

79'▲Ahmed Heggy←▼Fawzi El Henawi

Al Ittihad substitutes

27Okwi22Rashed28Attia19Heggy25Ashour7Sabahi30Nagar11Saleh23Soliman

Manager: M. Salas

62'▲Hossam Arafat←▼R. Antwi

62'▲Salah Amin←▼D. Calderón

69'▲Ibrahim Ayesh←▼Mohamed Reda

86'▲Karim Mohamed←▼Mohamed Helal

Wadi Degla substitutes

19Arafat9Amin21Ayesh32Mohamed35Nasr3Karta44Rashdan15Walid16Awad

Premier League: Al Ittihad 2–1 Wadi Degla

Al Ittihad beat Wadi Degla 2-1 in Premier League on February 25, 2021.

Goals: Mohamed Helal (23' pen), Fawzi El Henawi (53'), E. Okwi (90+1').

The match was played at Alexandria Stadium in Alexandria.

Al Ittihad vs Wadi Degla — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Al Ittihad 2–1 Wadi Degla