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Al Ittihad vs Jabala — Premier League 2019

Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jabala
Jabala
9/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Al-Hamadaniah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Al Ittihad52%
×Draw26%
Jabala22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ittihad
1.52
Jabala
0.89

Al Ittihad creates 71% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Ittihad
1.57
Jabala
1.04

allows per match

Al Ittihad
0.74
Jabala
1.47

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.00on par
Jabala+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Jabala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw
78%
Al Ittihad or Jabala
74%
Draw or Jabala
48%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+
27%
Jabala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals
78%
Al Ittihad 2+ goals
45%
Al Ittihad 3+ goals
20%
Jabala 1+ goals
59%
Jabala 2+ goals
22%
Jabala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)
70%
Jabala (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.74 · 81 matches

Jabala away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.57 + Jabala defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jabala attack 1.04 + Al Ittihad defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Ittihad scores more
52%
level
26%
Jabala scores more
22%

Al Ittihad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ittihad 2–2 Jabala

Al Ittihad and Jabala drew 2-2 in Premier League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Hamadaniah Stadium in Aleppo.