Al-Ittihad 3–0 Ittihad Gharyan SC: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ittihad Gharyan SC

2/9/2026

Premier League · Group B - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Ittihad60%

×Draw28%

Ittihad Gharyan SC13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-IttihadExpected goals in this matchIttihad Gharyan SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.47

Al-Ittihad

1.38

Ittihad Gharyan SC

0.47

Al-Ittihad creates 194% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 8 away

1.39

creates per match

0.38

0.57

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Al-Ittihad

1.39

Ittihad Gharyan SC

0.38

allows per match

Al-Ittihad

0.57

Ittihad Gharyan SC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad+0.00on par

Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad ↓

Ittihad Gharyan SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad or draw

87%

Al-Ittihad or Ittihad Gharyan SC

72%

Draw or Ittihad Gharyan SC

40%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad wins by 2+

30%

Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad 1+ goals

75%

Al-Ittihad 2+ goals

40%

Al-Ittihad 3+ goals

16%

Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals

37%

Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals

8%

Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)

83%

Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.57 · 70 matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad attack 1.39 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.38 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Ittihad scores more

60%

level

28%

Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more

13%

Al-Ittihad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff