Al Ittihad 2–1 Horriya: Result & Stats

Al Ittihad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Horriya

2/16/2024

Premier League · Round 137 April Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Al Ittihad60%

×Draw25%

Horriya16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al IttihadExpected goals in this matchHorriya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.68

Al Ittihad

1.60

Horriya

0.68

Al Ittihad creates 135% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 39 away

1.57

creates per match

0.62

0.74

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Al Ittihad

1.57

Horriya

0.62

allows per match

Al Ittihad

0.74

Horriya

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Horriya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Horriya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw

84%

Al Ittihad or Horriya

75%

Draw or Horriya

40%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+

32%

Horriya wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals

80%

Al Ittihad 2+ goals

47%

Al Ittihad 3+ goals

22%

Horriya 1+ goals

49%

Horriya 2+ goals

15%

Horriya 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)

79%

Horriya (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.74 · 81 matches

Horriya away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.57 + Horriya defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Horriya attack 0.62 + Al Ittihad defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Ittihad scores more

60%

level

25%

Horriya scores more

16%

Al Ittihad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff