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Al Ittihad vs Foutoua — Premier League 2019

Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Foutoua
Foutoua
3/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Al-Hamadaniah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Al Ittihad49%
×Draw28%
Foutoua24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ittihad
1.37
Foutoua
0.86

Al Ittihad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Ittihad
1.57
Foutoua
0.98

allows per match

Al Ittihad
0.74
Foutoua
1.17

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.00on par
Foutoua+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Foutoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw
76%
Al Ittihad or Foutoua
72%
Draw or Foutoua
51%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+
23%
Foutoua wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals
75%
Al Ittihad 2+ goals
40%
Al Ittihad 3+ goals
16%
Foutoua 1+ goals
58%
Foutoua 2+ goals
21%
Foutoua 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)
67%
Foutoua (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.74 · 81 matches

Foutoua away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.57 + Foutoua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Foutoua attack 0.98 + Al Ittihad defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Ittihad scores more
49%
level
28%
Foutoua scores more
24%

Al Ittihad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ittihad vs Foutoua

Foutoua beat Al Ittihad 3-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Hamadaniah Stadium in Aleppo.