Al Ittihad 1–0 Ceramica Cleopatra: Result & Stats

Al Ittihad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ceramica Cleopatra

9/21/2023

Premier League · Round 1Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Ittihad35%

×Draw29%

Ceramica Cleopatra36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al IttihadExpected goals in this matchCeramica Cleopatra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.12

Al Ittihad

1.09

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 93 away

1.02

creates per match

1.12

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Al Ittihad

1.02

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.12

allows per match

Al Ittihad

1.12

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw

64%

Al Ittihad or Ceramica Cleopatra

71%

Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra

65%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+

14%

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals

66%

Al Ittihad 2+ goals

30%

Al Ittihad 3+ goals

10%

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

67%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

31%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)

49%

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.12 · 128 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.02 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.12 + Al Ittihad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Ittihad scores more

35%

level

29%

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

36%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff