Al Ittihad 0–2 Al Wihdat: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Ittihad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Wihdat

Saleh Ratib 56', 13'

11/28/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5King Fahd Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Ittihad27%

×Draw25%

Al Wihdat48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al IttihadExpected goals in this matchAl Wihdat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.57

Al Ittihad

1.10

Al Wihdat

1.57

Al Wihdat creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.57

creates per match

1.43

1.71

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Al Ittihad

0.57

Al Wihdat

1.43

allows per match

Al Ittihad

1.71

Al Wihdat

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Al Wihdat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw

52%

Al Ittihad or Al Wihdat

75%

Draw or Al Wihdat

73%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+

10%

Al Wihdat wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals

67%

Al Ittihad 2+ goals

30%

Al Ittihad 3+ goals

10%

Al Wihdat 1+ goals

79%

Al Wihdat 2+ goals

46%

Al Wihdat 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)

36%

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Al Wihdat away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 0.57 + Al Wihdat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Wihdat attack 1.43 + Al Ittihad defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Ittihad scores more

27%

level

25%

Al Wihdat scores more

48%

Al Wihdat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Wihdat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Saleh Ratib

Al Wihdat · F

9.5

Match Events

13'

Saleh Ratib↳ Mohannad Abu Taha

39'

Mohammed Al-Nayef

46'

Zakaria Aziz← Amjad Alfayad

46'

Anas Al Dahan← Ahmad Hamo

46'

Mahmoud Al Omar← Amer Al Fayad

56'

Saleh Ratib↳ Anas Al Awadat

69'

Mohammad Aburiziq← B. Doumbia

71'

Chidubem Ezugwu← Mohammad Rihanieh

76'

Baha' Faisal← Saleh Ratib

77'

Khaled Assam← Anas Al Awadat

79'

Hasan Dahhan← Abdulla Najjar

85'

Mohammad Abuhazeem← Ahmed Samir

85'

Mohammad Emad Mahmoud Al Mawaly← Mohannad Abu Taha

87'

Zakaria Aziz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots20

3Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots20

4On Target6

3Off Target8

1Blocked6

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box11

Passing

41%Possession59%

386Total Passes561

299Accurate Passes478

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides6