Al-Ittihad 2–0 Al-Madina: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al-Madina

2/11/2024

Premier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Al-Ittihad53%

×Draw28%

Al-Madina19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-IttihadExpected goals in this matchAl-Madina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.71

Al-Ittihad

1.38

Al-Madina

0.71

Al-Ittihad creates 94% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 64 away

1.39

creates per match

0.86

0.57

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Al-Ittihad

1.39

Al-Madina

0.86

allows per match

Al-Ittihad

0.57

Al-Madina

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad+0.00on par

Al-Madina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad ↓

Al-Madina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad or draw

81%

Al-Ittihad or Al-Madina

72%

Draw or Al-Madina

47%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad wins by 2+

26%

Al-Madina wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad 1+ goals

75%

Al-Ittihad 2+ goals

40%

Al-Ittihad 3+ goals

16%

Al-Madina 1+ goals

51%

Al-Madina 2+ goals

16%

Al-Madina 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)

73%

Al-Madina (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.57 · 70 matches

Al-Madina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad attack 1.39 + Al-Madina defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al-Madina attack 0.86 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Ittihad scores more

53%

level

28%

Al-Madina scores more

19%

Al-Ittihad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff