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Al Ittihad vs Al Jazira — Premier League 2019

Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad
CANC
11:00
Al Jazira
Al Jazira
1/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Ittihad68%
×Draw21%
Al Jazira12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ittihad
1.91
Al Jazira
0.64

Al Ittihad creates 198% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Ittihad
1.57
Al Jazira
0.53

allows per match

Al Ittihad
0.74
Al Jazira
2.24

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.00on par
Al Jazira+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Al Jazira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw
88%
Al Ittihad or Al Jazira
79%
Draw or Al Jazira
32%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+
41%
Al Jazira wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals
85%
Al Ittihad 2+ goals
57%
Al Ittihad 3+ goals
30%
Al Jazira 1+ goals
47%
Al Jazira 2+ goals
14%
Al Jazira 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)
85%
Al Jazira (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.74 · 81 matches

Al Jazira away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.57 + Al Jazira defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.91

Al Jazira attack 0.53 + Al Ittihad defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al Ittihad scores more
68%
level
21%
Al Jazira scores more
12%

Al Ittihad at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Ittihad host Al Jazira

January 20, 2023: Al Ittihad take on Al Jazira in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.