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Al-Ittihad vs Al Ahli Benghazi — Premier League 2019

Al-Ittihad
Al-Ittihad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ahli Benghazi
Al Ahli Benghazi
6/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Al-Ittihad36%
×Draw30%
Al Ahli Benghazi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad
1.07
Al Ahli Benghazi
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 73 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad
1.39
Al Ahli Benghazi
1.49

allows per match

Al-Ittihad
0.57
Al Ahli Benghazi
0.75

finishing

Al-Ittihad+0.00on par
Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad ↓

Al Ahli Benghazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad or draw
66%
Al-Ittihad or Al Ahli Benghazi
70%
Draw or Al Ahli Benghazi
64%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad wins by 2+
14%
Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad 1+ goals
66%
Al-Ittihad 2+ goals
29%
Al-Ittihad 3+ goals
9%
Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals
64%
Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals
28%
Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)
51%
Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.57 · 70 matches

Al Ahli Benghazi away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.75 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad attack 1.39 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.49 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al-Ittihad scores more
36%
level
30%
Al Ahli Benghazi scores more
34%

Al-Ittihad at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al-Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ittihad vs Al Ahli Benghazi

Al Ahli Benghazi beat Al-Ittihad 2-1 in Premier League on June 25, 2023.