Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–1 Khorfakkan: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad Kalba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khorfakkan

B. Ramírez 54'

2/22/2025

League #301 · Round 17Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Ittihad Kalba43%

×Draw29%

Khorfakkan28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad KalbaExpected goals in this matchKhorfakkan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.92

Al-Ittihad Kalba

1.22

Khorfakkan

0.92

Al-Ittihad Kalba creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.60

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Al-Ittihad Kalba

0.60

Khorfakkan

0.83

allows per match

Al-Ittihad Kalba

1.00

Khorfakkan

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad Kalba+0.00on par

Khorfakkan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad Kalba ↓

Khorfakkan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad Kalba or draw

72%

Al-Ittihad Kalba or Khorfakkan

71%

Draw or Khorfakkan

57%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad Kalba wins by 2+

19%

Khorfakkan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad Kalba 1+ goals

70%

Al-Ittihad Kalba 2+ goals

34%

Al-Ittihad Kalba 3+ goals

12%

Khorfakkan 1+ goals

60%

Khorfakkan 2+ goals

23%

Khorfakkan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad Kalba (draw refunded)

61%

Khorfakkan (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad Kalba at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Khorfakkan away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.60 + Khorfakkan defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Khorfakkan attack 0.83 + Al-Ittihad Kalba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Ittihad Kalba scores more

43%

level

29%

Khorfakkan scores more

28%

Al-Ittihad Kalba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Ittihad Kalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

B. Ramírez

Khorfakkan · M

8.5

Match Events

54'

B. Ramírez↳ T. Tissoudali

59'

S. Ghoddos← D. Bessa

60'

Ali Salmin← Caio Eduardo

60'

Mohammad Subil← Waleed Al Mahrezi

66'

Omar Jumaa← Hamdan Humaid

74'

Gustavo← S. Moghanlou

76'

Pedro Pavlov

78'

Lourency← Aylton Boa Morte

78'

Abdullah Al Karbi← Kayque Campos

79'

O. Noureddine← B. Ramírez

85'

C. Agbenyegah← R. Alivoda

86'

O. Keita← Abdalla Al Naqbi

90+7'

Miha Blažič

90+4'

Abdalla Alrefaey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-IttihadKhorfakkan

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots19

2Corners9

6Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots19

2On Target8

4Off Target5

4Blocked6

3Inside Box11

7Outside Box8

Passing

56%Possession44%

469Total Passes359

382Accurate Passes287

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2