Al-Ittihad Kalba 3–0 Dibba Al-Fujairah

Al-Ittihad Kalba

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dibba Al-Fujairah

2/18/2024

Presidents Cup · Round of 16Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Ittihad Kalba50%

×Draw21%

Dibba Al-Fujairah29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad KalbaExpected goals in this matchDibba Al-Fujairah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.60

Al-Ittihad Kalba

2.12

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.60

Al-Ittihad Kalba creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.60

creates per match

2.00

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Al-Ittihad Kalba

2.60

Dibba Al-Fujairah

2.00

allows per match

Al-Ittihad Kalba

1.20

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad Kalba+0.00on par

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad Kalba ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad Kalba or draw

71%

Al-Ittihad Kalba or Dibba Al-Fujairah

79%

Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah

50%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad Kalba wins by 2+

29%

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad Kalba 1+ goals

88%

Al-Ittihad Kalba 2+ goals

62%

Al-Ittihad Kalba 3+ goals

35%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals

80%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals

47%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad Kalba (draw refunded)

63%

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad Kalba at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 2.60 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 2.00 + Al-Ittihad Kalba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Ittihad Kalba scores more

50%

level

21%

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more

29%

Al-Ittihad Kalba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Ittihad Kalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff