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Al-Ittihad FC vs ZOB Ahan — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
8/5/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsZabeel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC60%
×Draw20%
ZOB Ahan20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
2.19
ZOB Ahan
1.17

Al-Ittihad FC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
2.27
ZOB Ahan
1.67

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
0.67
ZOB Ahan
2.11

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
80%
Al-Ittihad FC or ZOB Ahan
80%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
40%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
38%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
89%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
64%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
37%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
69%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
33%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
75%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 2.27 + ZOB Ahan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.19

ZOB Ahan attack 1.67 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
60%
level
20%
ZOB Ahan scores more
20%

Al-Ittihad FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Ittihad FC 2–1 ZOB Ahan

Al-Ittihad FC beat ZOB Ahan 2-1 in AFC Champions League on August 5, 2019.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadion in Dubai.