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Al-Ittihad FC vs Sepahan FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
4/20/2016AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC65%
×Draw19%
Sepahan FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
2.34
Sepahan FC
1.08

Al-Ittihad FC creates 117% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
2.27
Sepahan FC
1.50

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
0.67
Sepahan FC
2.42

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par
Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Sepahan FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
84%
Al-Ittihad FC or Sepahan FC
81%
Draw or Sepahan FC
35%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
42%
Sepahan FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
90%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
67%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
41%
Sepahan FC 1+ goals
66%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
29%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
80%
Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 2.27 + Sepahan FC defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.34

Sepahan FC attack 1.50 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
65%
level
19%
Sepahan FC scores more
16%

Al-Ittihad FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ittihad FC vs Sepahan FC

Al-Ittihad FC beat Sepahan FC 4-0 in AFC Champions League on April 20, 2016.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.