Al-Ittihad FC 1–1 Ohod: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Ittihad FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ohod

10/19/2018

Pro League · Round 6King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC69%

×Draw19%

Ohod13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad FCExpected goals in this matchOhod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.84

Al-Ittihad FC

2.23

Ohod

0.84

Al-Ittihad FC creates 165% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 15 away

1.85

creates per match

0.60

1.08

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.85

Ohod

0.60

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.08

Ohod

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Ohod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw

87%

Al-Ittihad FC or Ohod

81%

Draw or Ohod

31%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

45%

Ohod wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

89%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

65%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

38%

Ohod 1+ goals

57%

Ohod 2+ goals

21%

Ohod 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

84%

Ohod (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Ohod away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.85 + Ohod defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ohod attack 0.60 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

69%

level

19%

Ohod scores more

13%

Al-Ittihad FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff