Al-Ittihad FC 3–4 NEOM: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Ittihad FC

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

NEOM

H. Aouar 49'

Y. En Nesyri 44', 38'

A. Al Haji 90'

M. Al Saad 55'

L. Rodriguez 16'

S. Benrahma 3'

4/8/2026

Pro League · Round 29King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC38%

×Draw24%

NEOM38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad FCExpected goals in this matchNEOM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.52

Al-Ittihad FC

1.54

NEOM

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.65

creates per match

1.58

1.45

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.65

NEOM

1.58

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.45

NEOM

1.43

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC-0.02on par

NEOM-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

NEOM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw

62%

Al-Ittihad FC or NEOM

76%

Draw or NEOM

62%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

19%

NEOM wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

79%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

45%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

20%

NEOM 1+ goals

78%

NEOM 2+ goals

45%

NEOM 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

51%

NEOM (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 8 matches

NEOM away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.65 + NEOM defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

NEOM attack 1.58 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

38%

level

24%

NEOM scores more

38%

Al-Ittihad FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Y. En Nesyri

Al-Ittihad FC · F

8.6

Match Events

3'

S. Benrahma

5'

Saïd BenrahmaGoal confirmed

13'

Faisal Al-Ghamdi

16'

L. Rodriguez↳ A. Doucoure

23'

A. Al Oboud← F. Al Ghamdi

28'

Islam Ahmed Hawsawi

31'

Danilo Pereira

38'

Y. En Nesyri↳ Fabinho

39'

Youssef En-NesyriGoal confirmed

44'

Y. En Nesyri↳ S. Bergwijn

49'

H. Aouar↳ D. Pereira

55'

M. Al Saad↳ M. Al Burayk

63'

F. Abdi← I. Hawsawi

63'

A. Al Haji← M. Al Saad

64'

A. Al Nashri← Roger

78'

A. Abdu← L. Rodriguez

78'

A. Al Oyayari← M. Al Burayk

79'

Faris Abdi

85'

A. Al Bishi← S. Bergwijn

85'

A. Al Ghamdi← H. Aouar

90+2'

Abdoulaye Doucouré

90+3'

A. Al Saluli← S. Benrahma

90'

A. Al Haji↳ A. Doucoure

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-IttihadNEOM

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots19

2.46Expected Goals (xG)2.49

6Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots19

5On Target8

2Off Target7

4Blocked4

8Inside Box14

3Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

428Total Passes339

357Accurate Passes276

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.16Goals Prevented-0.16

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1