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Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Pro League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
10/24/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 6King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC32%
×Draw24%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
1.42
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.69

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.85
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.29

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.08
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.98

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
56%
Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
76%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
68%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
15%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
76%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
41%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
17%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
82%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
50%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
42%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.85 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
32%
level
24%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
44%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 in Pro League on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.