Al-Ittihad FC 0–0 Al Baten: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Baten

6/27/2022

Pro League · Round 30King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC59%

×Draw22%

Al Baten19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad FCExpected goals in this matchAl Baten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.00

Al-Ittihad FC

1.93

Al Baten

1.00

Al-Ittihad FC creates 93% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 59 away

1.86

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.86

Al Baten

0.95

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.06

Al Baten

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Al Baten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw

81%

Al-Ittihad FC or Al Baten

78%

Draw or Al Baten

41%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

35%

Al Baten wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

85%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

57%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

30%

Al Baten 1+ goals

63%

Al Baten 2+ goals

26%

Al Baten 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

75%

Al Baten (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

Al Baten away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.86 + Al Baten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Al Baten attack 0.95 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

59%

level

22%

Al Baten scores more

19%

Al-Ittihad FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Ahmed Hegazy

Al-Ittihad FC · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Renato ChavesPenalty cancelled

28'

Igor CoronadoPenalty cancelled

36'

Renato Chaves

40'

Hussain Ahmed Al Issa

45+6'

Rakan Shamlan

46'

Abdulrahman Al Obud← Abdulaziz Al Bishi

67'

Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji← Hussain Al Eisa

71'

Bruno Henrique

74'

Fabio Abreu

76'

Haroune Camara← Bruno Henrique

82'

Abdulaziz Al-Aryani← Rakan Shamlan

88'

Abderazak HamdallahGoal cancelled

90+2'

Mohammed Bassam Alhurayji

90+4'

Abdul Majeed Obaid← Fábio Abreu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-IttihadAl

Overview

69%Possession31%

11Total Shots7

9Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target3

6Off Target2

2Blocked2

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box0

Passing

69%Possession31%

490Total Passes223

417Accurate Passes152

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0