Al-Ittihad FC 4–2 Abha: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Ittihad FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Abha

11/10/2023

Pro League · Round 13Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC60%

×Draw21%

Abha19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad FCExpected goals in this matchAbha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.06

Al-Ittihad FC

2.03

Abha

1.06

Al-Ittihad FC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 77 away

1.85

creates per match

1.05

1.08

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.85

Abha

1.05

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.08

Abha

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Abha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Abha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw

81%

Al-Ittihad FC or Abha

79%

Draw or Abha

40%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

36%

Abha wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

87%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

60%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

33%

Abha 1+ goals

65%

Abha 2+ goals

29%

Abha 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

76%

Abha (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Abha away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.85 + Abha defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.03

Abha attack 1.05 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

60%

level

21%

Abha scores more

19%

Al-Ittihad FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff