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Al Ittehad vs Sur — Professional League 2019

Al Ittehad
Al Ittehad
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sur
Sur
5/19/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 25Al-Saada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al Ittehad33%
×Draw31%
Sur36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ittehad
0.98
Sur
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Al Ittehad
0.60
Sur
0.83

allows per match

Al Ittehad
1.23
Sur
1.35

finishing

Al Ittehad+0.00on par
Sur+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittehad ↓

Sur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Ittehad or draw
64%
Al Ittehad or Sur
69%
Draw or Sur
67%

Winning margin

Al Ittehad wins by 2+
12%
Sur wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Ittehad 1+ goals
62%
Al Ittehad 2+ goals
26%
Al Ittehad 3+ goals
8%
Sur 1+ goals
64%
Sur 2+ goals
28%
Sur 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Ittehad (draw refunded)
48%
Sur (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittehad at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Sur away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittehad attack 0.60 + Sur defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sur attack 0.83 + Al Ittehad defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Ittehad scores more
33%
level
31%
Sur scores more
36%

Sur at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al Ittehad 1–3 Sur

Sur beat Al Ittehad 3-1 in Professional League on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Saada Stadium in Salalah.