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Al Ittehad vs Nizwa — Professional League 2019

Al Ittehad
Al Ittehad
FT
1 – 1
Nizwa
Nizwa
2/12/2021Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 9Nizwa Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Ittehad49%
×Draw28%
Nizwa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ittehad
1.33
Nizwa
0.82

Al Ittehad creates 62% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Ittehad
0.60
Nizwa
0.41

allows per match

Al Ittehad
1.23
Nizwa
2.06

finishing

Al Ittehad+0.00on par
Nizwa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittehad ↓

Nizwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Ittehad or draw
77%
Al Ittehad or Nizwa
72%
Draw or Nizwa
51%

Winning margin

Al Ittehad wins by 2+
23%
Nizwa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Ittehad 1+ goals
74%
Al Ittehad 2+ goals
38%
Al Ittehad 3+ goals
15%
Nizwa 1+ goals
56%
Nizwa 2+ goals
20%
Nizwa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Ittehad (draw refunded)
68%
Nizwa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittehad at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Nizwa away — creates 0.41, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittehad attack 0.60 + Nizwa defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nizwa attack 0.41 + Al Ittehad defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Ittehad scores more
49%
level
28%
Nizwa scores more
23%

Al Ittehad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Ittehad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ittehad vs Nizwa

Al Ittehad and Nizwa drew 1-1 in Professional League on February 12, 2021.

The match was played at Nizwa Sports Complex in Nizwa.